Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 3484 Republic	ELP 08:35	ORD 12:59	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 4006 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ELP 07:39	ORD 11:55	17%	5%	0.7%	100%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ELP 05:43 → IAH 08:59UA 6303 · flown by Mesa	2h 54m Houston	IAH 11:53 → ORD 14:37UA 1691	7h 54m	98%	76%
United Details →	ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724	2h 22m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	6h 55m	94%	75%
United Details →	ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728	3h 41m Denver	DEN 20:19 → ORD 23:41UA 377	8h 09m	97%	74%
United Details →	ELP 06:59 → IAH 10:13UA 6163 · flown by Mesa	3h 35m Houston	IAH 13:48 → ORD 16:30UA 1299	8h 31m	99%	73%
American Details →	ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14AA 4910 · flown by SkyWest	2h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 09:30 → ORD 15:44AA 2998	8h 43m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	ELP 14:25 → ATL 19:42DL 1002	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	8h 28m	95%	70%
Delta Details →	ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 13:13 → ORD 14:25DL 1477	7h 25m	98%	69%
American Details →	ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029	3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988	7h 46m	94%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON