Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1646 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1646 ELP 06:08 → PHX 06:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4935 ELP 15:18 → PHX 15:48 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1646 Southwest	ELP 06:08	PHX 06:35	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1660 Southwest	ELP 08:18	PHX 08:53	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 5008 SkyWest	ELP 06:11	PHX 06:45	10%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 4889 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ELP 12:21	PHX 12:56	16%	8%	0.7%	93%
OO 4971 SkyWest	ELP 15:39	PHX 16:17	18%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 4935 Southwest	ELP 15:18	PHX 15:48	18%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON