Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1490 at 13:28, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1490 Southwest	ELP 13:28	SAN 14:35	16%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ELP 07:00 → IAH 10:02UA 6163 · flown by Mesa	1h 58m Houston	IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399	7h 21m	98%	76%
United Details →	ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724	2h 22m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	6h 41m	94%	72%
United Details →	ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728	2h 42m Denver	DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540	7h 14m	96%	70%
American Details →	ELP 12:21 → PHX 12:56AA 4889 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Phoenix	PHX 14:10 → SAN 15:31AA 1951	4h 10m	92%	66%
Frontier Details →	ELP 19:26 → DEN 21:38F9 4418	50m Denver	DEN 22:28 → SAN 00:03 +1F9 2711	5h 37m	76%	59%
American Details →	ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:11 → SAN 14:19AA 1769	8h 14m	95%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON