tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1505 at 11:13, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1505 Southwest ELP 11:13 SAT 13:50 9% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ELP 08:00 → IAH 11:07UA 3994 · flown by Mesa 3h 39m Houston IAH 14:46 → SAT 15:53UA 2030 6h 53m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 6h 38m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14AA 4910 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Los Angeles LAX 09:39 → SAT 14:40AA 6497 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 53m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 4h 01m 88% 78%
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → IAH 10:02UA 6163 · flown by Mesa 2h 06m Houston IAH 12:08 → SAT 13:17UA 6202 · flown by Mesa 5h 17m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → ELP 16:00 → IAH 19:10UA 4339 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 32m Houston IAH 21:42 → SAT 22:44UA 2198 5h 44m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → ELP 14:25 → ATL 19:42DL 1002 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → SAT 23:21DL 1508 7h 56m 93% 71%
UnitedDetails → ELP 14:02 → IAH 17:15UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 05m Houston IAH 20:20 → SAT 21:28UA 1542 6h 26m 95% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ELP 16:00 → IAH 19:10UA 4339 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 10m Houston IAH 20:20 → SAT 21:28UA 1542 4h 28m 70% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON