Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 436 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 436 EUG 06:12 → DEN 09:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1220 EUG 12:44 → DEN 16:37 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 436 Southwest	EUG 06:12	DEN 09:53	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1241 United Flight history →	EUG 05:00	DEN 08:37	6%	3%	0.7%	94%
WN 2355 Southwest	EUG 12:52	DEN 16:28	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1220 United	EUG 12:44	DEN 16:37	16%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON