tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4561 at 14:37, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4561 Southwest EUG 14:37 LAS 16:49 18% 12% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon 2h 55m Portland PDX 09:01 → LAS 11:12AS 1337 5h 52m 98% 87%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:31 → PDX 06:31AS 3040 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Portland PDX 07:41 → LAS 09:52AS 1467 4h 21m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 335 1h 00m San Francisco SFO 08:35 → LAS 10:21UA 1627 4h 21m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241 2h 45m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 24m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Seattle SEA 09:50 → LAS 12:25DL 2905 6h 10m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → EUG 05:13 → SLC 08:11DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 6h 48m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 1h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → LAS 21:58DL 1662 5h 15m 100% 78%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:47AS 2077 · flown by Horizon 1h 03m Portland PDX 17:50 → LAS 20:12AS 531 4h 12m 93% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON