tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3338 at 08:43, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3338 SkyWest EUG 08:43 LAX 11:01 16% 5% 0.7% no record
AS 2323 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record EUG 12:55 LAX 15:11 21% 4% 0.0% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon 1h 14m Portland PDX 07:20 → LAX 09:57AS 581 4h 37m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → EUG 05:13 → SLC 08:11DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 7h 14m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m Seattle SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 6h 40m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241 1h 25m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 1h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → LAX 22:10DL 1142 5h 27m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 335 1h 23m San Francisco SFO 08:58 → LAX 10:35UA 1457 4h 35m 96% 79%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon 2h 45m Seattle SEA 13:38 → LAX 16:25AS 696 6h 40m 100% 73%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon 1h 10m Seattle SEA 08:18 → LAX 10:52AS 1306 4h 52m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon 56m Seattle SEA 11:49 → LAX 14:22AS 487 4h 37m 55% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON