tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 3636 Envoy EUG 06:52 PHX 09:33 10% 4% 1.0% no record
MQ 3747 Envoy EUG 13:46 PHX 16:24 14% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EUG 05:13 → SLC 08:11DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → PHX 12:01DL 1431 6h 48m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 1h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → PHX 22:11DL 1496 5h 28m 100% 84%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:31 → PDX 06:31AS 3040 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Portland PDX 09:03 → PHX 11:39AS 1350 6h 08m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241 2h 48m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 7h 25m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest 47m Seattle SEA 08:25 → PHX 11:20DL 2419 5h 05m 85% 72%
DeltaDetails → EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest 1h 26m Seattle SEA 20:30 → PHX 23:33DL 2447 5h 48m 91% 69%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 13:52 → SEA 14:59AS 2188 · flown by Horizon 1h 28m Seattle SEA 16:27 → PHX 19:25AS 744 5h 33m 75% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON