tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 556 at 11:12, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 556 Southwest EUG 11:12 SAN 13:50 12% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 21:15 → SAN 22:15DL 1202 5h 32m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → EUG 05:13 → SLC 08:11DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 6h 55m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon 1h 26m Portland PDX 07:32 → SAN 10:05AS 577 4h 45m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest 2h 07m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SAN 12:39DL 2533 6h 24m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:31 → PDX 06:31AS 3040 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Portland PDX 09:02 → SAN 11:32AS 721 6h 01m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241 2h 38m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 41m 98% 75%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon 3h 13m Seattle SEA 10:21 → SAN 13:03AS 650 7h 03m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 335 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → SAN 11:51UA 2177 5h 51m 98% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON