Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 4128 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 4128 EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 4124 EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4128 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 06:15	SEA 07:38	9%	4%	1.1%	94%
OO 4002 SkyWest	EUG 12:23	SEA 13:41	15%	8%	1.0%	no record
OO 3013 SkyWest	EUG 15:00	SEA 16:18	20%	9%	0.9%	no record
DL 4124 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 17:45	SEA 19:04	23%	8%	1.3%	91%worse than usual
AS 2046 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	EUG 06:00	SEA 07:08	12%	2%	0.0%	88%
AS 2073 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	EUG 09:45	SEA 10:53	31%	3%	0.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON