Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:13, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EUG 05:13 → SLC 08:11DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	3h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	7h 22m	99%	86%
United Details →	EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241	2h 56m Denver	DEN 11:33 → SJC 13:17UA 1256	8h 17m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	52m Seattle	SEA 08:30 → SJC 10:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	4h 40m	89%	78%
Alaska Details →	EUG 13:52 → SEA 14:59AS 2188 · flown by Horizon	2h 45m Seattle	SEA 17:44 → SJC 19:50AS 1303	5h 58m	100%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON