Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1899 at 07:12, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1899 Southwest	EUG 07:12	SMF 08:45	5%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EUG 05:13 → SLC 08:11DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	3h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	7h 03m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	1h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → SMF 22:10DL 1582	5h 27m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	2h 22m Seattle	SEA 10:00 → SMF 12:07DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest	5h 52m	98%	84%
Alaska Details →	EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:47AS 2077 · flown by Horizon	1h 09m Portland	PDX 17:56 → SMF 19:33AS 793	3h 33m	93%	79%
Alaska Details →	EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon	3h 51m Seattle	SEA 14:44 → SMF 16:37AS 2401 · flown by Horizon	6h 52m	100%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon	53m Seattle	SEA 11:46 → SMF 13:35AS 772	3h 50m	48%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON