tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 14:40, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120 2h 08m Denver DEN 19:06 → ANC 22:50UA 280 12h 10m 93% 72%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 09:56 → SEA 12:51AS 373 3h 07m Seattle SEA 15:58 → ANC 18:37AS 99 12h 41m 100% 64%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 17:41 → SEA 20:40AS 296 2h 10m Seattle SEA 22:50 → ANC 01:34 +1AS 703 11h 53m 94% 63%
UnitedDetails → EWR 13:10 → ORD 14:53UA 2053 1h 26m Chicago ORD 16:19 → ANC 19:53UA 461 10h 43m 85% 62%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 07:25 → SEA 10:35AS 299 2h 40m Seattle SEA 13:15 → ANC 15:57AS 1381 12h 32m 98% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → EWR 17:41 → SEA 20:40AS 296 1h 21m Seattle SEA 22:01 → ANC 00:44 +1AS 1471 11h 03m 71% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON