Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2353 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 2353 EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1991 EWR 17:20 → ATL 19:54 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2353 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ATL 08:15	11%	4%	0.9%	85%
YX 3493 Republic	EWR 07:27	ATL 09:46	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 1673 Delta Flight history →	EWR 07:05	ATL 09:20	13%	4%	0.9%	87%
DL 2365 Delta Flight history →	EWR 08:30	ATL 10:51	15%	4%	0.9%	84%
DL 2397 Delta Flight history →	EWR 12:00	ATL 14:30	18%	6%	1.2%	81%
YX 3474 Republic	EWR 16:57	ATL 19:31	20%	8%	2.4%	no record
F9 4601 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 11:25	ATL 14:02	21%	7%	1.6%	75%
DL 2401 Delta Flight history →	EWR 13:29	ATL 16:00	22%	7%	1.0%	80%
DL 2312 Delta Flight history →	EWR 15:21	ATL 17:54	28%	9%	1.9%	70%
UA 1848 United Flight history →	EWR 15:44	ATL 18:08	31%	12%	1.7%	76%
DL 1604 Delta	EWR 19:08	ATL 21:22	32%	15%	2.1%	no record
F9 1157 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 22:29	ATL 00:52	32%	15%	1.4%	68%
UA 1991 United Flight history →	EWR 17:20	ATL 19:54	38%	18%	2.0%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON