tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4430 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 13:49 AVL 15:54 24% 10% 12.1% 76%
UA 4405 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 20:59 AVL 23:15 31% 20% 12.7% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575 3h 38m Charlotte CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont 6h 49m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:25 → AVL 13:21DL 1182 6h 16m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 51m Minneapolis MSP 09:04 → AVL 12:24DL 2181 6h 09m 91% 84%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 2h 08m Charlotte CLT 09:05 → AVL 10:19AA 6030 · flown by Piedmont 5h 19m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 10:04 → AVL 11:09DL 3059 5h 09m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185 59m Chicago ORD 08:14 → AVL 11:06AA 3963 · flown by Envoy 5h 36m 90% 75%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → AVL 22:32DL 3116 7h 11m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → EWR 13:29 → ATL 16:00DL 2401 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 19:46 → AVL 20:52DL 2037 7h 23m 98% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON