Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, G7 4409 at 09:53, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G7 4409 GoJet	EWR 09:53	BGR 11:26	18%	5%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	3h 42m Charlotte	CLT 10:39 → BGR 13:15AA 1874	8h 15m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 10:49 → BGR 13:35DL 2350	7h 35m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	2h 17m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → BGR 16:04DL 3003	6h 09m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON