Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 3525 at 10:46 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet that day YX 3525 EWR 10:46 → BNA 12:43 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 695 EWR 15:02 → BNA 16:29 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3525 Republic	EWR 10:46	BNA 12:43	12%	3%	1.1%	no record
UA 2454 United Flight history →	EWR 16:20	BNA 18:01	19%	9%	1.0%	67%
YX 3454 Republic	EWR 19:37	BNA 21:29	19%	8%	1.8%	no record
UA 3772 United	EWR 09:45	BNA 11:01	21%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 1608 United Flight history →	EWR 15:00	BNA 16:32	23%	8%	0.9%	72%
UA 695 United	EWR 15:02	BNA 16:29	26%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON