Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 3499 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet that day YX 3499 EWR 08:36 → BOS 10:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1117 EWR 21:14 → BOS 22:20 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3499 Republic	EWR 08:36	BOS 10:00	9%	3%	1.1%	no record
DL 5764 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:45	BOS 12:13	11%	3%	1.3%	95%
UA 375 United Flight history →	EWR 10:00	BOS 11:16	14%	6%	1.0%	80%
UA 1669 United Flight history →	EWR 12:15	BOS 13:32	17%	7%	1.1%	85%
YX 3552 Republic	EWR 13:15	BOS 14:46	18%	6%	2.0%	no record
YX 3508 Republic	EWR 15:51	BOS 17:20	22%	9%	1.4%	no record
YX 3654 Republic	EWR 18:08	BOS 19:40	30%	14%	1.7%	no record
UA 1117 United	EWR 21:14	BOS 22:20	35%	15%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON