tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Charlotte, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Buffalo on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 3h 26m Charlotte CLT 10:23 → BUF 12:15AA 1203 7h 15m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 14:10 → BUF 16:13DL 2266 7h 43m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → EWR 17:06 → DTW 19:00DL 2573 2h 35m Detroit DTW 21:35 → BUF 22:45DL 978 5h 39m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 55m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 11m 85% 73%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → BUF 23:42DL 2334 8h 21m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:20 → ORD 11:04UA 2290 3h 10m Chicago ORD 14:14 → BUF 16:47UA 580 7h 27m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 2h 43m Chicago ORD 10:25 → BUF 13:13UA 4382 · flown by GoJet 7h 13m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → EWR 13:10 → ORD 14:53UA 2053 3h 30m Chicago ORD 18:23 → BUF 20:51UA 1335 7h 41m 96% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → EWR 15:28 → FLL 18:30B6 685 1h 23m Fort Lauderdale FLL 19:53 → BUF 23:05B6 866 7h 37m 71% 49%
JetBlueDetails → EWR 14:07 → MCO 16:50B6 127 1h 05m Orlando MCO 17:55 → BUF 20:45B6 1586 6h 38m 75% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON