Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	2h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 10:34 → BWI 14:03DL 2357	7h 48m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546	5h 47m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	3h 26m Detroit	DTW 15:09 → BWI 16:45DL 2480	6h 50m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BWI 13:07DL 2711	7h 07m	96%	85%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653	7h 57m	98%	84%
American Details →	EWR 06:43 → ORD 08:07AA 3027	1h 47m Chicago	ORD 09:54 → BWI 12:59AA 4253 · flown by Envoy	6h 16m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → BWI 15:49DL 2799	7h 19m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → BWI 19:45DL 2928	7h 45m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 17:06 → DTW 19:00DL 2573	56m Detroit	DTW 19:56 → BWI 21:36DL 2715	4h 30m	72%	63%
American Details →	EWR 13:33 → CLT 15:21AA 1697	54m Charlotte	CLT 16:15 → BWI 17:50AA 3121	4h 17m	62%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON