tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 297 at 07:34, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 297 United Flight history → EWR 07:34 BZN 10:21 14% 4% 1.0% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → BZN 12:35DL 2946 8h 20m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:50 → DEN 10:09UA 1758 3h 21m Denver DEN 13:30 → BZN 15:18UA 513 9h 28m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53UA 2434 3h 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 12h 24m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 11:18 → BZN 13:20DL 406 9h 20m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 1h 28m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 44m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120 2h 27m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 8h 34m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:43 → ORD 08:07AA 3027 2h 09m Chicago ORD 10:16 → BZN 12:52AA 1080 8h 09m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492 1h 00m Houston IAH 09:41 → BZN 12:23UA 623 8h 23m 92% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:15 → LAX 11:53UA 2692 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 9h 09m 70% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON