tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Charlotte, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Columbia on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 11:11 → CAE 12:20AA 5994 · flown by Piedmont 6h 20m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → CAE 11:14DL 5091 · flown by Endeavor 5h 16m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:00 → CAE 12:59DL 2944 5h 54m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 2h 38m Charlotte CLT 09:35 → CAE 10:44AA 6042 · flown by Piedmont 5h 44m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 17:34 → CAE 18:41DL 8904 6h 41m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → EWR 13:29 → ATL 16:00DL 2401 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → CAE 20:07DL 2193 6h 38m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728 1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:01 → CAE 13:45AA 5437 · flown by PSA 7h 54m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:20 → ORD 11:04UA 2290 2h 51m Chicago ORD 13:55 → CAE 17:05UA 4523 · flown by GoJet 7h 45m 97% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON