Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4419 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 14:39	CHA 17:02	30%	20%	2.8%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	2h 43m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → CHA 13:16UA 4543 · flown by GoJet	7h 16m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 10:36 → CHA 11:30DL 1737	5h 30m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → CHA 14:43DL 3141	6h 13m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 13:29 → ATL 16:00DL 2401	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 19:36 → CHA 20:33DL 1722	7h 04m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 21:50 → CHA 22:47DL 1059	7h 26m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 16:12 → CHA 17:15DL 5179 · flown by Endeavor	5h 15m	93%	77%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	3h 24m Charlotte	CLT 11:25 → CHA 12:54AA 6127 · flown by Piedmont	6h 54m	97%	77%
United Details →	EWR 07:59 → IAH 10:44UA 332	2h 06m Houston	IAH 12:50 → CHA 16:03UA 5091 · flown by SkyWest	8h 04m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON