Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2505 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2505 EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1168 EWR 19:17 → CLT 21:20 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2505 American Flight history →	EWR 06:00	CLT 08:01	9%	3%	1.3%	94%
AA 1113 American Flight history →	EWR 05:00	CLT 06:57	10%	3%	1.3%	92%
YX 3635 Republic	EWR 07:02	CLT 08:52	11%	3%	1.4%	no record
UA 3504 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:03	CLT 12:07	15%	3%	1.2%	84%
AA 1575 American Flight history →	EWR 07:30	CLT 09:35	16%	4%	1.3%	85%
UA 3533 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:01	CLT 17:10	21%	7%	2.0%	81%
AA 1697 American Flight history →	EWR 13:33	CLT 15:21	33%	8%	1.3%	84%worse than usual
UA 1168 United	EWR 19:17	CLT 21:20	34%	16%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON