Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3638 EWR 10:34 → CMH 12:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 3481 EWR 18:55 → CMH 20:57 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3638 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:34	CMH 12:29	9%	3%	1.4%	89%
YX 3511 Republic	EWR 13:32	CMH 15:28	13%	4%	2.0%	no record
UA 3545 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 17:57	CMH 19:59	18%	7%	1.8%	79%
UA 3692 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 20:48	CMH 22:52	19%	6%	1.6%	79%
UA 3481 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:55	CMH 20:57	19%	7%	1.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON