Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1758 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1758 EWR 07:50 → DEN 10:09 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 407 EWR 18:49 → DEN 21:18 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1758 United Flight history →	EWR 07:50	DEN 10:09	15%	3%	0.6%	95%worse than usual
UA 1999 United Flight history →	EWR 11:55	DEN 14:13	16%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 2455 United Flight history →	EWR 12:18	DEN 14:23	16%	4%	0.6%	83%
UA 2444 United	EWR 14:42	DEN 16:55	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2120 United Flight history →	EWR 14:40	DEN 16:58	25%	8%	0.6%	80%
UA 1197 United Flight history →	EWR 17:12	DEN 19:45	29%	10%	0.6%	71%
UA 407 United Flight history →	EWR 18:49	DEN 21:18	29%	10%	0.6%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	50m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 47m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	47m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DEN 10:09DL 2849	5h 54m	90%	80%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 12:44 → DEN 13:47DL 1648	5h 52m	86%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON