Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2728 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 2728 EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2840 EWR 18:09 → DFW 20:49 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2728 American Flight history →	EWR 05:51	DFW 08:40	10%	3%	1.7%	95%
YX 3603 Republic	EWR 07:02	DFW 09:58	12%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 1303 American Flight history →	EWR 08:00	DFW 10:51	17%	6%	1.5%	85%
F9 2471 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 13:35	DFW 16:27	21%	10%	1.7%	74%
UA 1396 United	EWR 13:08	DFW 15:54	22%	10%	1.4%	no record
AA 1796 American Flight history →	EWR 12:33	DFW 15:09	25%	10%	1.7%	75%
UA 1590 United Flight history →	EWR 15:30	DFW 18:12	28%	13%	1.2%	71%
AA 1810 American Flight history →	EWR 17:10	DFW 20:10	38%	16%	4.8%	47%
UA 2840 United	EWR 18:09	DFW 20:49	41%	23%	6.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	52m Detroit	DTW 12:35 → DFW 14:18DL 1041	5h 23m	82%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON