Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2596 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2596 EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2573 EWR 17:06 → DTW 19:00 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2596 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:00	DTW 07:50	7%	3%	0.9%	91%
UA 3700 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:36	DTW 10:37	9%	2%	1.2%	88%
YX 3633 Republic	EWR 10:17	DTW 12:21	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 3437 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 13:22	DTW 15:25	12%	5%	1.6%	85%
DL 2566 Delta Flight history →	EWR 09:55	DTW 11:43	14%	4%	1.0%	84%
YX 3644 Republic	EWR 21:19	DTW 23:19	18%	6%	1.7%	no record
DL 2577 Delta Flight history →	EWR 13:00	DTW 14:58	18%	7%	1.0%	82%
YX 3475 Republic	EWR 18:38	DTW 20:48	20%	8%	2.0%	no record
DL 2573 Delta Flight history →	EWR 17:06	DTW 19:00	26%	12%	1.2%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON