Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Miami, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Key West on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 3606 Republic	EWR 10:02	EYW 13:43	25%	4%	5.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51DL 2815	7h 51m	98%	79%
American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	3h 56m Charlotte	CLT 10:53 → EYW 13:10AA 1816	8h 10m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:01 → EYW 13:00DL 1472	7h 00m	96%	74%
American Details →	EWR 05:31 → MIA 08:45AA 1196	3h 40m Miami	MIA 12:25 → EYW 13:30AA 3577 · flown by Envoy	7h 59m	99%	72%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → EYW 15:31UA 752	9h 31m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON