Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1364 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 1364 EWR 06:45 → FLL 09:50 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 685 EWR 15:28 → FLL 18:30 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1364 United Flight history →	EWR 06:45	FLL 09:50	15%	4%	4.1%	92%
B6 1505 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:00	FLL 09:00	15%	4%	5.4%	82%
UA 2759 United	EWR 11:56	FLL 15:11	25%	8%	1.6%	no record
UA 2151 United	EWR 08:50	FLL 11:59	25%	6%	4.9%	no record
UA 1998 United	EWR 10:23	FLL 13:39	26%	8%	1.7%	no record
UA 651 United Flight history →	EWR 13:10	FLL 16:20	29%	9%	1.6%	81%
B6 105 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 08:00	FLL 11:04	29%	7%	3.1%	72%
UA 435 United	EWR 19:40	FLL 22:51	36%	13%	2.1%	no record
UA 2096 United	EWR 17:56	FLL 21:05	36%	12%	1.9%	no record
B6 8807 JetBlue	EWR 16:21	FLL 19:16	39%	15%	3.4%	no record
B6 685 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 15:28	FLL 18:30	40%	16%	3.2%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON