Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1366 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 1366 EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 2677 EWR 20:08 → IAD 21:33 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1366 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAD 07:22	6%	3%	1.0%	96%
UA 1618 United	EWR 10:06	IAD 11:31	15%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 3906 United	EWR 13:03	IAD 14:32	17%	7%	1.4%	no record
UA 2301 United	EWR 15:12	IAD 16:39	25%	9%	1.0%	no record
UA 1784 United Flight history →	EWR 21:50	IAD 23:19	26%	9%	1.0%	79%
UA 2677 United Flight history →	EWR 20:08	IAD 21:33	37%	13%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON