Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 492 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 492 EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2127 EWR 19:59 → IAH 22:50 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 492 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAH 08:41	8%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 2438 United Flight history →	EWR 07:05	IAH 09:50	11%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 332 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	IAH 10:44	14%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 2204 United Flight history →	EWR 12:36	IAH 15:34	15%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 556 United Flight history →	EWR 10:51	IAH 13:36	19%	5%	0.6%	77%
UA 1830 United	EWR 14:01	IAH 16:54	21%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 2425 United Flight history →	EWR 21:05	IAH 23:58	22%	8%	0.7%	75%
UA 2815 United Flight history →	EWR 15:40	IAH 18:46	23%	9%	0.6%	69%
UA 2782 United Flight history →	EWR 17:54	IAH 20:55	25%	12%	0.6%	69%
UA 2127 United Flight history →	EWR 19:59	IAH 22:50	25%	10%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON