Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Wilmington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → ILM 11:18DL 376	5h 18m	95%	85%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	3h 14m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → ILM 12:33AA 5822 · flown by Piedmont	6h 33m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 14:12 → ILM 15:38DL 1292	7h 08m	97%	83%
American Details →	EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575	2h 49m Charlotte	CLT 12:24 → ILM 13:39AA 5416 · flown by PSA	6h 09m	97%	81%
American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 09:20 → ILM 10:38AA 5820 · flown by Piedmont	5h 38m	96%	78%
American Details →	EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 08:43 → ILM 12:03AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	6h 33m	90%	75%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 20:55 → ILM 22:31DL 3070	7h 10m	95%	75%
American Details →	EWR 13:33 → CLT 15:21AA 1697	2h 07m Charlotte	CLT 17:28 → ILM 18:26AA 2105	4h 53m	93%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EWR 13:33 → CLT 15:21AA 1697	1h 03m Charlotte	CLT 16:24 → ILM 17:41AA 6116 · flown by Piedmont	4h 08m	70%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON