Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3446 EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 3519 EWR 18:29 → IND 20:57 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3446 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 11:54	IND 14:07	13%	3%	1.2%	87%
UA 3669 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 09:15	IND 11:28	13%	2%	1.2%	88%
UA 3443 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:47	IND 18:06	20%	6%	1.3%	85%
UA 3447 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:47	IND 22:11	21%	7%	1.7%	86%
UA 3519 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:29	IND 20:57	22%	8%	1.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON