Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 3473 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day YX 3473 EWR 06:01 → JAX 08:28 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1391 EWR 15:36 → JAX 18:08 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3473 Republic	EWR 06:01	JAX 08:28	6%	2%	2.1%	no record
UA 2678 United Flight history →	EWR 12:06	JAX 14:43	19%	7%	1.3%	82%
UA 1391 United Flight history →	EWR 15:36	JAX 18:08	28%	11%	1.1%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON