Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2147 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2147 EWR 06:14 → LAS 08:48 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1283 EWR 20:27 → LAS 22:59 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2147 United	EWR 06:14	LAS 08:48	12%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 1631 United Flight history →	EWR 09:00	LAS 11:28	20%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 446 United Flight history →	EWR 10:16	LAS 12:50	21%	4%	0.7%	82%
UA 1864 United Flight history →	EWR 12:25	LAS 14:53	22%	6%	0.8%	86%
UA 2828 United	EWR 09:37	LAS 12:07	22%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2387 United Flight history →	EWR 14:29	LAS 16:58	30%	11%	1.1%	78%
UA 1539 United	EWR 16:38	LAS 19:09	31%	13%	0.9%	no record
UA 1283 United	EWR 20:27	LAS 22:59	34%	13%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 40m Dulles	IAD 09:02 → LAS 11:09UA 1323	8h 09m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 16m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 12m	94%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON