tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1399 United Flight history → EWR 21:43 MCI 23:59 32% 10% 1.0% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492 3h 24m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 9h 15m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 11:42 → MSP 13:41DL 2864 1h 38m Minneapolis MSP 15:19 → MCI 16:55DL 1774 6h 13m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596 50m Detroit DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826 4h 44m 92% 82%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747 7h 12m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575 2h 58m Charlotte CLT 12:33 → MCI 14:01AA 3233 7h 31m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 1h 45m Charlotte CLT 08:42 → MCI 10:11AA 2946 6h 11m 94% 78%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488 2h 57m Chicago ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561 7h 21m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:43 → ORD 08:07AA 3027 2h 09m Chicago ORD 10:16 → MCI 11:59AA 6215 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → EWR 17:06 → DTW 19:00DL 2573 49m Detroit DTW 19:49 → MCI 20:49DL 1321 4h 43m 68% 55%
UnitedDetails → EWR 17:12 → DEN 19:45UA 1197 55m Denver DEN 20:40 → MCI 23:25UA 1596 7h 13m 67% 53%
UnitedDetails → EWR 13:10 → ORD 14:53UA 2053 59m Chicago ORD 15:52 → MCI 17:36UA 664 5h 26m 70% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON