Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 788 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 788 EWR 06:30 → MCO 09:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1827 EWR 20:56 → MCO 23:40 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 788 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	MCO 09:16	11%	3%	4.5%	96%
B6 927 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:07	MCO 08:48	12%	3%	5.3%	90%
UA 411 United Flight history →	EWR 07:45	MCO 10:41	14%	4%	5.4%	98%worse than usual
F9 1659 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 05:52	MCO 08:44	16%	4%	5.1%	83%
UA 486 United	EWR 09:07	MCO 11:54	20%	6%	4.7%	no record
UA 2396 United Flight history →	EWR 11:05	MCO 13:58	21%	6%	4.4%	87%
UA 1739 United Flight history →	EWR 10:01	MCO 12:54	22%	6%	13.3%	76%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	EWR 13:03	MCO 15:54	23%	8%	1.4%	81%
UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	MCO 19:56	25%	12%	1.5%	77%
UA 1268 United Flight history →	EWR 15:23	MCO 18:16	27%	11%	1.4%	79%
B6 127 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 14:07	MCO 16:50	29%	14%	3.0%	75%
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 20:56	MCO 23:58	30%	12%	1.2%	73%
UA 1863 United	EWR 19:12	MCO 22:08	30%	14%	1.5%	no record
B6 1827 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 20:56	MCO 23:40	39%	18%	2.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON