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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417 5h 42m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728 8h 00m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 7h 54m 96% 76%
FrontierDetails → EWR 11:25 → ATL 14:01F9 4601 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → MDW 18:02F9 2779 7h 37m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596 1h 00m Detroit DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor 4h 14m 93% 69%
DeltaDetails → EWR 11:42 → MSP 13:41DL 2864 2h 57m Minneapolis MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor 7h 35m 97% 57%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 3h 17m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 7h 54m 97% 57%
DeltaDetails → EWR 13:00 → DTW 14:58DL 2577 3h 09m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 6h 29m 97% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON