Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 3563 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:42	MEM 23:42	19%	6%	1.9%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	2h 23m Detroit	DTW 10:13 → MEM 11:15DL 1627	6h 15m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 27m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	2h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 11:05 → MEM 13:17DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	8h 02m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 32m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MEM 15:09DL 1700	7h 39m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:45 → BOS 12:13DL 5764 · flown by Republic	2h 45m Boston	BOS 14:58 → MEM 17:23DL 5594 · flown by Republic	7h 38m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 13:00 → DTW 14:58DL 2577	2h 51m Detroit	DTW 17:49 → MEM 18:55DL 3049	6h 55m	96%	81%
American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	3h 26m Charlotte	CLT 10:23 → MEM 11:14AA 1790	7h 14m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EWR 18:32 → ORD 19:48AA 1691	2h 42m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy	6h 46m	71%	55%
United Details →	EWR 18:15 → ORD 20:10UA 254	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317	6h 06m	69%	51%
American Details →	EWR 17:10 → DFW 20:10AA 1810	1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:25 → MEM 23:07AA 1758	6h 57m	68%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON