Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1196 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 1196 EWR 05:31 → MIA 08:45 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 3016 EWR 18:34 → MIA 21:54 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1196 American Flight history →	EWR 05:31	MIA 08:45	13%	3%	1.5%	95%
UA 1135 United	EWR 07:00	MIA 10:18	20%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 1152 American Flight history →	EWR 08:00	MIA 11:10	22%	4%	1.3%	93%worse than usual
UA 2785 United Flight history →	EWR 09:07	MIA 12:19	26%	5%	1.3%	97%worse than usual
AA 1801 American Flight history →	EWR 12:25	MIA 15:31	32%	9%	1.3%	82%worse than usual
UA 2295 United Flight history →	EWR 11:32	MIA 14:39	34%	7%	1.1%	81%worse than usual
UA 791 United	EWR 20:33	MIA 23:44	35%	13%	1.2%	no record
UA 1498 United	EWR 15:45	MIA 18:56	40%	12%	1.2%	no record
AA 3016 American	EWR 18:34	MIA 21:54	42%	15%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON