tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 3620 at 18:59, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 3620 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 18:59 MSN 20:39 23% 7% 2.7% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 11:53 → MSN 12:54DL 2681 6h 49m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest 6h 04m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 13:00 → DTW 14:58DL 2577 1h 56m Detroit DTW 16:54 → MSN 17:20DL 5214 · flown by Endeavor 5h 20m 91% 78%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575 2h 52m Charlotte CLT 12:27 → MSN 13:42AA 2443 7h 12m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144 8h 17m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:43 → ORD 08:07AA 3027 3h 27m Chicago ORD 11:34 → MSN 12:39AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest 6h 56m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488 3h 07m Chicago ORD 12:50 → MSN 13:44UA 2349 6h 45m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:20 → ORD 11:04UA 2290 3h 10m Chicago ORD 14:14 → MSN 15:10UA 1595 6h 50m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120 1h 02m Denver DEN 18:00 → MSN 21:16UA 1894 7h 36m 75% 52%
UnitedDetails → EWR 18:15 → ORD 20:10UA 254 1h 11m Chicago ORD 21:21 → MSN 22:15UA 1251 5h 00m 68% 44%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:50 → DEN 10:09UA 1758 48m Denver DEN 10:57 → MSN 14:07UA 2368 7h 17m 18% 16%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON