Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1641 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1641 EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1331 EWR 21:55 → MSP 23:59 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1641 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:15	MSP 08:13	6%	3%	0.9%	89%
UA 283 United	EWR 06:55	MSP 08:46	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2864 Delta Flight history →	EWR 11:42	MSP 13:41	15%	4%	0.8%	82%
DL 2866 Delta Flight history →	EWR 17:55	MSP 20:20	21%	11%	0.9%	75%
UA 424 United	EWR 14:14	MSP 16:09	25%	9%	0.9%	no record
UA 1331 United Flight history →	EWR 21:55	MSP 23:59	27%	9%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON