tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 11:24 → ONT 12:22DL 1173 8h 07m 91% 83%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:50 → DEN 10:09UA 1758 1h 16m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 57m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 91% 76%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:45 → SFO 17:48UA 2328 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 21:13 → ONT 22:41UA 552 10h 56m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:37 → SFO 12:54UA 1593 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 16:22 → ONT 17:51UA 393 11h 14m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → EWR 11:02 → PHX 13:17AA 2825 3h 43m Phoenix PHX 17:00 → ONT 18:26AA 1666 10h 24m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728 3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:34AA 2635 10h 43m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 30m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → EWR 17:10 → DFW 20:10AA 1810 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:17 → ONT 22:29AA 1695 8h 19m 64% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON