Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 530 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 530 EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1691 EWR 18:32 → ORD 19:48 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 530 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ORD 07:42	9%	3%	1.0%	92%
AA 3185 American Flight history →	EWR 05:30	ORD 07:15	10%	4%	2.5%	88%
AA 3027 American Flight history →	EWR 06:43	ORD 08:07	14%	5%	1.5%	87%
UA 2488 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	ORD 09:43	15%	5%	1.0%	88%
UA 2754 United	EWR 07:17	ORD 08:47	17%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 1525 United Flight history →	EWR 10:24	ORD 12:06	20%	7%	1.0%	79%
UA 2290 United Flight history →	EWR 09:20	ORD 11:04	20%	7%	1.0%	83%
AA 752 American	EWR 10:46	ORD 12:20	24%	9%	1.7%	no record
UA 1439 United	EWR 11:13	ORD 12:47	25%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 2053 United Flight history →	EWR 13:10	ORD 14:53	28%	11%	1.0%	77%
AA 2416 American	EWR 14:23	ORD 16:07	30%	13%	1.8%	no record
UA 1206 United Flight history →	EWR 21:34	ORD 23:03	34%	10%	1.0%	71%
UA 3810 United	EWR 13:33	ORD 14:52	34%	11%	1.1%	no record
UA 2788 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	ORD 16:28	35%	12%	1.1%	50%
UA 546 United Flight history →	EWR 20:19	ORD 22:06	37%	12%	1.0%	69%
UA 1871 United	EWR 20:49	ORD 22:22	39%	13%	1.0%	no record
UA 661 United Flight history →	EWR 16:45	ORD 18:34	39%	10%	1.1%	50%
UA 254 United Flight history →	EWR 18:15	ORD 20:10	42%	13%	1.0%	44%
AA 1691 American Flight history →	EWR 18:32	ORD 19:48	43%	16%	1.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON