Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4448 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 17:40	ORF 19:21	31%	15%	7.1%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	2h 15m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → ORF 11:57DL 3066	5h 57m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → ORF 14:06DL 2925	7h 01m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:45 → BOS 12:13DL 5764 · flown by Republic	1h 52m Boston	BOS 14:05 → ORF 16:00DL 5858 · flown by Republic	5h 15m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 14:42 → ORF 16:22DL 1101	7h 52m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → ORF 19:39DL 1346	7h 39m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	EWR 17:06 → DTW 19:00DL 2573	2h 40m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412	6h 26m	94%	80%
American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	1h 27m Charlotte	CLT 08:24 → ORF 09:44AA 2072	4h 44m	93%	80%
United Details →	EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488	2h 24m Chicago	ORD 12:07 → ORF 15:24UA 2807	7h 25m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120	1h 00m Denver	DEN 17:58 → ORF 23:33UA 680	8h 53m	75%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON