Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1613 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1613 EWR 06:30 → PDX 09:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 560 EWR 20:03 → PDX 23:01 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1613 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	PDX 09:28	10%	2%	1.0%	93%
AS 1399 Alaska	EWR 06:28	PDX 09:35	13%	2%	1.2%	no record
UA 560 United Flight history →	EWR 20:03	PDX 23:01	30%	10%	0.8%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 11:42 → MSP 13:41DL 2864	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 53m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	1h 04m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 36m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	8h 53m	94%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON