Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2646 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32%.

Safest bet that day UA 2646 EWR 06:30 → PHX 08:42 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1327 EWR 17:52 → PHX 19:51 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2646 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	PHX 08:42	10%	2%	0.9%	94%
AA 1282 American Flight history →	EWR 07:15	PHX 09:28	19%	4%	1.3%	86%
UA 1289 United	EWR 10:09	PHX 12:31	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 370 United Flight history →	EWR 13:08	PHX 15:25	22%	7%	0.8%	97%worse than usual
AA 2825 American Flight history →	EWR 11:02	PHX 13:17	23%	6%	0.9%	77%
UA 2612 United	EWR 18:49	PHX 21:08	32%	13%	1.0%	no record
UA 2321 United	EWR 20:32	PHX 22:46	32%	12%	1.0%	no record
UA 676 United	EWR 18:19	PHX 20:38	32%	12%	0.9%	no record
AA 1327 American	EWR 17:52	PHX 19:51	32%	13%	1.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 28m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	1h 04m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	6h 55m	88%	75%
United Details →	EWR 12:18 → DEN 14:23UA 2455	1h 12m Denver	DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254	7h 17m	88%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON