Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3666 EWR 14:08 → PIT 15:47 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3667 EWR 20:08 → PIT 21:49 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3666 Republic	EWR 14:08	PIT 15:47	13%	4%	2.6%	no record
YX 3682 Republic	EWR 21:08	PIT 22:43	16%	5%	1.2%	no record
YX 3469 Republic	EWR 17:44	PIT 19:02	17%	6%	1.5%	no record
UA 3403 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:29	PIT 21:06	19%	6%	1.7%	82%
YX 3667 Republic	EWR 20:08	PIT 21:49	21%	6%	1.4%	no record
UA 4396 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 13:05	PIT 14:35	17%	12%	4.8%	83%
UA 4390 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:15	PIT 10:45	18%	8%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON