Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 3665 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 3665 EWR 07:57 → PWM 09:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest UA 1397 EWR 21:50 → PWM 23:12 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3665 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 07:57	PWM 09:23	7%	2%	1.3%	98%
UA 3685 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 12:32	PWM 14:06	8%	3%	1.5%	93%
YX 3573 Republic	EWR 19:00	PWM 20:36	17%	7%	1.9%	no record
UA 1397 United Flight history →	EWR 21:50	PWM 23:12	29%	14%	0.9%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON